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The projected impact of geographic targeting of oral cholera vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa: A modeling study
Elizabeth C. Lee | Andrew S. Azman | Joshua Kaminsky | Sean M. Moore | Heather S. McKay | Justin Lessler
Date of Publication:
Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) plays a key role in reducing the near-term risk of cholera, although global supplies are limited. Characterizing the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of mass OCV deployment strategies is critical for setting expectations and developing cholera control plans that maximize the chances of success.
We compared the projected impacts of vaccination campaigns across sub-Saharan Africa from 2018 through 2030 when targeting geographically according to historical cholera burden and risk factors. We assessed the number of averted cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years and the cost-effectiveness of these campaigns with models that accounted for direct and indirect vaccine effects and population projections over time. Under current vaccine supply projections, an approach optimized to targeting by historical burden is projected to avert 828,971 (95% CI 803,370–859,980) cases (equivalent to 34.0% of projected cases; 95% CI 33.2%–34.8%). An approach that balances logistical feasibility with targeting historical burden is projected to avert 617,424 (95% CI 599,150–643,891) cases. In contrast, approaches optimized for targeting locations with limited access to water and sanitation are projected to avert 273,939 (95% CI 270,319–277,002) and 109,817 (95% CI 103,735–114,110) cases, respectively. We find that the most logistically feasible targeting strategy costs US$1,843 (95% CI 1,328–14,312) per DALY averted during this period and that effective geographic targeting of OCV campaigns can have a greater impact on cost-effectiveness than improvements to vaccine efficacy and moderate increases in coverage. Although our modeling approach does not project annual changes in baseline cholera risk or directly incorporate immunity from natural cholera infection, our estimates of the relative performance of different vaccination strategies should be robust to these factors.
Our study suggests that geographic targeting substantially improves the cost-effectiveness and impact of oral cholera vaccination campaigns. Districts with the poorest access to improved water and sanitation are not the same as districts with the greatest historical cholera incidence. While OCV campaigns can improve cholera control in the near term, without rapid progress in developing water and sanitation services or dramatic increases in OCV supply, our results suggest that vaccine use alone is unlikely to allow us to achieve the 2030 goal.
Feasibility and costs of a targeted cholera vaccination campaign in Ethiopia
Samuel Teshome | Sachin Desai | Jerome H. Kim | Dires Belay | Vittal Mogasale
Date of Publication:
Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics
Shanchol, a WHO-prequalified oral cholera vaccine (OCV), has not been used by public health systems in cholera-endemic settings of Africa although several outbreak response campaigns have been conducted. We present experiences from a mass vaccination campaign in a cholera-endemic setting of Ethiopia in which Shanchol was introduced through the public health system. Social mobilization involved sensitization of community leaders, household visits, and mass distribution of banners, posters and leaflets. The vaccination was implemented after careful microplanning of logistics and cold chain, manpower, transportation, vaccine supply and supervision and monitoring of adverse events. Vaccine delivery costs were collected and analyzed after vaccination. As there was no experience with Shanchol in Ethiopia, a bridging trial was conducted to demonstrate safety and immunogenicity of the vaccine in the local population prior to the mass vaccination. Vaccination was conducted in two rounds of four days each in February 2015 and March 2015 in 10 selected villages of Shashemenae rural district of Ethiopia. A total of 62,161 people targeted. 47,137 people (76%) received the first dose, and 40,707 (65%) received two doses. The financial cost of the vaccination campaign was estimated at US $2.60 per dose or US $5.64 per fully immunized person. The cost of vaccine delivery excluding vaccine procurement was $0.68 per dose or $1.48 per fully immunized person. The study demonstrates that mass cholera vaccination administered through the public health system in Ethiopia is feasible, can be implemented through the existing health system at an affordable cost, and the vaccine is acceptable to the community. The lessons from this study are useful for deploying OCV in other African endemic settings through the public health system and may guide future immunization policy decisions.